Gas Price Induced Behavior Pt. II
Sell photos on photrade | By rsiedlar
In the first part of this topic, I discussed how the higher price of gasoline was impacting driving behavior on the road and commuting options. Now I will look forward a little more about how high gasoline prices might affect the bigger decisions such as where to live and how we design our communities.
The key to such changes will be long-term high prices. I am thinking on the order of 5-10 years. If this occurs I think we might see the following:
- The radius of our cities will begin to decrease. Long commutes will become a thing of the past as people strive to live closer to offices, retail, schools, parks, and entertainment. The walkability of a neighborhood will become extremely important. Thus living in the city and not in outlying areas will become much more desirable.
- It is possible we will see an increase in the size of city/town populations as they become more dense. In a few cases, living in a rural area will become more expensive than living in the city. This will almost be a complete reversal from the current situation. And will only occur if housing is plentiful in the city.
- Any restrictions on the density within city limits will need to be seriously rethought. Places such as Washington, DC where building heights are restricted, will need to consider pros and cons of such restrictions in light of the new reality of their residents need for walkable access to amenities. Good planning will be extremely important for maintaining a quality of life. Mixing the need for density with environmental green spaces will be key.
- Naturally citizens will still want to travel. And clearly they can’t get everywhere with their feet or bikes. So good public transit with the cities will be crucial and intercity rail service will also be highly favored.
So, what has lead me to these ideas. Well, my main basis for it was to look at areas where there have been very high gasoline prices for years such as Europe and Asia. Agreed that some of those cities formed long before we even had cars, but not all of them and the new ones follow the same pattern.
How high do you think the price of gasoline needs to be before any of the above will occur?
